Invest in shares

I am sticking my neck out here.
I do not invest in equity - at least not directly.
So it is kind of stupid to give advice on share markets.
But here goes anyways ...

1) I believe that the world economy will recover, sooner or later. It has to.
2) The share market will also, therefore, climb.
3) If you are young, have some money to spare, and have the risk appetite buy shares in sectors that was doing well before the financial meltdown and is now performing poorly only because of financial meltdown. In other words, if the financial meltdown hadn't happened, would you expect these sectors to continue doing well? If yes, this is the sector you should go for.
4) Most people look to make quick money from share market. For what my understanding is worth, I do not think so. You may hit a jack pot once in a while, but most shares give good returns only in about 3-5 years time.

What do you say? Do you agree with me?

The Barber and You

I hate visiting my neighbourhood barber shop (they call themselves beauty parlour) on weekends. The men are busy cutting hair the whole day. With every hair cut they add a free 10 minute head massage - aah! heavenly. They are tired by afternoon but they have to carry on till late evening. Their hands ache. One of the barbers advised me once not to come on a weekend. With a string of customers and busy weekends, you might think these men are making lots of money. Wrong! The person who is making money is the owner of the hair cutting salon - alright! beauty parlour. He does not cut hair. He just sits there are collects money and ensures that things are in order. He, of course, keeps the beauty parlour neat and clean - that's one of the reasons people flock to his place. He also ensures that the barbers are well dressed, the air-conditioning is working, the music system is on, etc., etc. That is his investment and running cost. And the barbers who work their heart out are actually making the owner rich. I am sure you know many such examples.

Question: Who are you making rich?

The Curse of The Credit Card

Credit card is a potential drain on your earnings. It doesn't seem so, but it is. You tend to spend more when you shop with a credit card. The removal of actual cash passing your hands to another desensitizes you. And all the small purchases add up when the credit card bill comes knocking you door. But there is something more pernicious in credit cards. And that is the minimum payment clause. Why do you think the bank / credit card company allows you to pay only a part of the total. It is not that they love you. It is because it gives them more revenue.

Let's see how it works.

Assume you have made a purchase of Rs. 100. You are allowed to make a minimum payment of 10%. You have to pay for the outstanding amount at 2.5% per month (yeah, it is per month). But there is another twist here. The interest free period disappears when you make a part payment. So you actually pay interest on the Rs. 90 from the day you make a purchase. Suppose you decide to pay off the whole amount in 10 months, you end up paying Rs 11.25 extra. Not much you say? I would loath to pay Rs. 11.25 on every Rs. 100.

But consider this. You not only pay 2.5% on the amount outstanding for the original purchase, you also pay 2.5% on any purchase you make in the payoff duration - even if you pay off the entire amount for the purchase within the billing cycle.

Let us take a simple example. This is your purchase and payment pattern

Month--Payment-----Outstanding-------Purchases------Interest
------------------------------------------------------------
Jan----Rs.100
Feb----Rs.10---------Rs.90------------Rs.1000--------Rs.2.25
Mar----Rs.1090-------Rs 0-------------Rs 0-----------Rs.27.25

Basically, you end up paying for the Rs 1000 for the month of February even though you paid it off without carrying anything forward.
Deadly, isn't it?

By the way, 2.5% per month does not work out to be 30% per annum. It works out to be approximately 34.5%. You might as well take a consumer loan from the bank at 12.5% and pay off the outstanding amount on credit card.

Features to die for

That new cell phone has a fantastic feature that you are ready to die for. This credit card gives you facilities that you wish your existing credit card had. Your car is getting old. The new ones give you a great advantage in mileage AND has a fantastic pick up. Your house could do with a ionizer. What about that latest infrared burglar detector alarm?

The marketing people are geared to entice you. The advertisements are meant to attract. But do you really require that extra feature? Splurge by all means. But does it dig into your principal or are you buying it from the fruits of your investment? And 2 months down the line, will you really use that feature in the latest cell phone?

The Risk-Reward Curve

Beware of wisdom that does not have any basis. "More risk carries more reward." Sure? Who told you that?

Just check out the Risk-Reward curve in Seth Godin's blog. I have no doubt that Seth means well. He is inspirational. But the questions you need to ask are:

Where did he get this risk-reward curve from?
Is this curve universal?
I could draw a risk-reward curve that goes exactly opposite.
Does this curve apply to all fields of endeavour?
How do you take care of Black Swan events?

In his brilliant book, The Dip, Seth Godin warns you of the cul-de-sac - dead end that go no where. What if your investments are in a cul-de-sac?

I am absolutely positive and brimming with confidence when I have to try out something that is relevant to my skill. Blogging? I will give it my best and am ready to serve my time out in the dip. Surely I know when to quit and when to stick around. But I am totally risk averse to putting my hard earned money in some investment that shows me a risk-reward curve that has no basis.

Lesson: When you invest in yourself, go all out - achieve that goal. You may get it, you may not. But it is definitely worth trying. But - and this is a big BUT - be extremely risk averse for your investment that depend on others. If a stock broker or an agent comes to you showing how your profit will grow based on some unsubstantiated risk-reward curve, throw him/her out.

The truth about share markets

1. The movement in share prices are not random.
2. Herd mentality is as much evident in the share market as in any other human endeavor.
3. Share prices reflect the true value of a company. Wrong. They never reflect the true value of the company. It reflects what the stock brokers think it should reflect.
4. The share prices can go down or go up due to any reason whatsoever.
5. The share values will go down. Only then will the price come up and some one will make money.
6. All market rallies are driven by lay people who think that they can make quick money when the market is bullish.
7. You can never time the market. So, if you think you can sell when the share price will hit the peak, forget it.
8. How many people do you know who play in share market and are rich?
9. You do not make profit or loss in share market unless you sell the shares. Seeing your shares climbing sharply just after you have purchased the shares could give you immense pleasure, but it will not give you money unless you sell the shares.
10. The stock broker will always make money whenever you sell. It doesn't matter if you make or not.
11. Not opting for 'Stop Loss' is foolishness.
12. Tracking share market will always require more effort than you think.
13. You think the stock brokers know more about the share market than you do? Think again.
14. Ask a financial expert to predict if tomorrow the shares will go up or down. If the general trend is going down, she will say it will go down further. If the general trend is going up, she will say it will go up further. No rocket science here.

Investing in shares should be part of your investment plan. Not the complete investment plan.

Velocity of circulation

It can only be called a pipe dream. It has always been my desire to invest a sum of money and once I get sufficient returns, and take out the initial investment before it is too late. The returns will continue to earn money while I invest that amount in another fund. And then when the second fund starts giving good returns, I again take out my initial investment and allow the returns to continue earning for me, while I invest the original sum in yet another fund ... you get the idea; the faster I circulate my original money from one fund to another, the quicker I become rich.

This would be ideal. But I have never been able to do so. Perhaps I lack the discipline to follow it up.

Escape from the clutches of credit card

In my last post I talked about impulsive purchases and breaking barriers of reluctance. Credit cards are instruments that help you spend unnecessarily and spend more. Since you do not see your net worth reducing, you get psychologically inured to overspending.

One way to escape this is to avoid the temptation to increase the credit limit of your credit card. I deliberately ignore mails from my bank to increase the credit limit. In one case, the bank increased the credit limit on their own because I am their valued customer. Yeah sure! I also carry just one credit card. I have surrendered all others I had.

I just read something called the ice glass method for reducing credit card spending. The following extract is from Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely.

[The Ice Glass Method] is a home remedy for impulsive spending. You put your credit card into a glass of water and put the glass in the freezer. Then, when you impulsively decide to make a purchase, you must first wait for the ice to thaw before extracting the card. By then, your compulsion to purchase has subsided. (You can't just put the card in the microwave, of course, because then you'd destroy the magnetic strip.)

Go figure.

Systematic Investment Plan

An important ground rule in your path to becoming rich is to understand that high returns are always associated with high risks. Always. So, if someone is promising you high returns but telling you that there is no risk, then that person is making a quick money - from you. So, please venture into high risk-high return schemes only if you have excess money and/or if you are young.

And then there is always the Black Swan.

A relatively safe instrument of making money from stock markets is what in India is called the Mutual Fund Systematic Investment Plan (SIP). This is particularly affective when the share market is in an upheaval. The most important think to remember in an SIP is that you need patience.

The way it works is similar to a recurring deposit schemes. You put in a fixed amount of money to the scheme every month. When the share market is down your money will buy more units. When the share market is up your fixed money will buy you less units. This averages out the fluctuations.

I actually did an experiment. I invested in a mutual fund where I paid a lump sum outright at the beginning and at the same time started investing in an SIP. After a year, the outright payment has given me a return of -14.3% (a loss) and the SIP actually gave me a return of +13.5%.

You will get more information on SIP here and here.

I see SIP as a long term investment plan. I intend to keep it up for about 5 years to see how well it works.

I also see SIP as having better Return on Investment, if you consider the effort and time required to follow the share market directly. Direct investment will most definitely fetch you much better returns, but you need to invest lot more time to understand the share market.

As long as you do not put all your money in SIP, you should be fine.

The magic of interest compounded

There is just one golden rule when it comes to becoming rich. And that is ...

You should earn money even when you are not present.

So that rules out jobs.
Or even business where you need to be present all times.

Building a business where you employ clever employees is definitely a very big yes.
Investments in property, shares, mutual funds are a yes.
And surprise, surprise, monetized blogs (such as this one) are also a yes. At least for some (No! Not me! Not yet!)

The trick is to start early.
Reason: You have sufficient time to recover from setbacks - there will be setbacks, guaranteed. Youth is not risk averse. So that helps.

More importantly, the real benefit of compound interest kicks in.

How much do you think you get if you invest merely Rs. 2000 per year for 25 years that returns you 10% compounded annually. It is Rs. 2,16,363 ( more than 4 times)

You are risk averse?
You would like to put the money in a recurring deposit bank scheme that gives you just 5% returns compounded. In 25 years your money will become Rs. 1,00,227 (a shade over double)

But you should have 25 years with you. So don't start at 40. Start when you are 25 years old.

Insure you way to wealth

To become rich, get insured. 'You must be joking," you say.
Insurance has the lowest Return On Investment.
So I must be out of my mind when I propose that one of the ways to become rich, you need to get insured.
Hear me out please.

Contrary to popular belief, insurance is not just for your future. Yes, you pay a premium to offset any future eventuality.

So, for instance, if you are hospitalized and you have a medical insurance, the insurance will cover your expenses.
If you are disabled and you are covered by insurance, you get an amount that will take care of your loss of capability to earn.

If you die, your family will get a sum of money that will hopefully take the place of the earning member - you - who is no longer there.

But this is only part of the story.
Insurance allows you to take risks in the present.
This is not recognised easily.
If you are insured for the future for a small premium, you do not have to bother to save a huge amount of money for any eventuality.

You can take a part of your present income and start investing without fear of a failure.
And investing, though fraught with risks, is the only game in town that can make you rich.

Lesson: Cover yourself adequately for the future. Get insured. And then invest boldly in the present.