The Risk-Reward Curve

Beware of wisdom that does not have any basis. "More risk carries more reward." Sure? Who told you that?

Just check out the Risk-Reward curve in Seth Godin's blog. I have no doubt that Seth means well. He is inspirational. But the questions you need to ask are:

Where did he get this risk-reward curve from?
Is this curve universal?
I could draw a risk-reward curve that goes exactly opposite.
Does this curve apply to all fields of endeavour?
How do you take care of Black Swan events?

In his brilliant book, The Dip, Seth Godin warns you of the cul-de-sac - dead end that go no where. What if your investments are in a cul-de-sac?

I am absolutely positive and brimming with confidence when I have to try out something that is relevant to my skill. Blogging? I will give it my best and am ready to serve my time out in the dip. Surely I know when to quit and when to stick around. But I am totally risk averse to putting my hard earned money in some investment that shows me a risk-reward curve that has no basis.

Lesson: When you invest in yourself, go all out - achieve that goal. You may get it, you may not. But it is definitely worth trying. But - and this is a big BUT - be extremely risk averse for your investment that depend on others. If a stock broker or an agent comes to you showing how your profit will grow based on some unsubstantiated risk-reward curve, throw him/her out.